By Carl Larry
Well we?re certainly taking our time on this latest rally. We keep pushing back on the RSI and this feels a lot more like a pause before we pop the highs. Failures feel much more heavy to the downside and weak to the upside. We like the upside to continue in the meantime and we?re looking at resistance at 10727, 10806 and 10932. The sup-port numbers will be solid with every rally; 10614, 10503 and 10411. The front spread is an example of what attempted failure looks like on a rally. The moves up are quick, but the falls are heavy. We are looking to hold the 39 support level here. Flat price looks to play the game; lower early, rally late.
Gasoline: We?re moving on to RBU3. RB is pausing on the chart and may get stuck in a range if we can hold support. We look for resistance at 29350, 29516 and 29700. Support comes back to 29083, 28921 and 28656. The front spread moved higher and looks to hold support at 1245, 1225 and 1185. Higher tests resistance at 1255, 1279 and 1320. RBCL resistance at 1700, 1755. Support holds to 1672, 1644, 1587.
Distillate: We?re following HOU3 now. HO also falling back to sideways. We see support holding 30237, 30112 for the trend line and 29988 for slippage. Channel resistance is close at 30512, but a redraw get 30522, 30644. The front spread is still range bound with ?74 holding strong support and ?61 area keeping a ceiling on things. The HOCL is testing key resistance at 2150 with 2210 above. Support to 2086, 2060.
Trends are only for the affected: We?re coming off the uptrend we started on Monday. The failure to keep things moving yesterday has left us with a neutral sideways move here. This will look for support to 10560 and cap the high trade with resistance at 10700. The 60min chart is also backing out of the uptrend here. We don?t see anything forming to send us lower, but we think that the upside ceiling for this range extends to the 10725 area. A time to be patient or play the range.
Fundy you should mention: Far be it from me to overlook the revision in Retail Sales yesterday and think the US was such a better place because of it. I was more interested in the rising import prices of oil climbing 3.2%. Here?s where we really need to rethink our oil trade rules. Yes, imports are still a at a majority, but we think that the important thinking here is how it affects our exports. If we ever get around to realizing we are in surplus of light sweet crude and Keystone can help balance that out, exports can rule. In that same mindset, we see PPI (0.3) at 8:30am EST.
Sorry, I am just physically attracted: Oh my my, sweet potato pie and let?s not forget the API. We were again underwhelmed on the numbers that are still trying to justify their costs. Crude came in with a meager 1.0M draw and 1.4M getting drawn down from Cushing. I?ll give them their due, the Cushing number has been solid. As for the products, we can see the 1.1M increase in Distillates, but that increase of 1.7M barrels of gasoline makes little sense. They had refinery utilization down 0.7% so that means we would have to have seen very strong imports and/or pretty weak demand. Both of which we?re doubting for the first week of August. We?ll see how this stacks up against the EIAs and get ready without Whack-a-Stat club.
(The author is associated with Oiloutlooks)
Brad Stevens wimbledon declaration of independence fourth of july American flag Happy 4th of July Laura Elizabeth Whitehurst
No comments:
Post a Comment